ABSTRACT
It is frequently discussed in the literature that the correlation between low-correlation assets under ordinary market conditions may increase during crisis periods. To contribute to the ongoing debates, this paper empirically examines risk transmission between oil and precious metal markets induced by the COVID-19 pandemic using the DCC-GARCH model. The findings reveal evidence of a significant risk transmission between oil prices and precious metal prices, particularly during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings point out that the negative relationship between oil and all precious metals returns in the pre-COVID-19 period has changed with the effect of the pandemic. In this process, it is revealed that the negative relationship between oil and gold has strengthened, but the negative relationship between oil and silver has weakened. In addition, the correlations between oil and platinum and palladium turn positive. The empirical findings imply that investors and portfolio managers seeking portfolio diversification and hedging opportunities in a high-risk environment such as the COVID-19 pandemic should consider gold and silver assets for investment.
ABSTRACT
This study aims to investigate real effective exchange rates and real commodity prices volatility transmission among Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey. According to the results, there is a bidirectional causality relationship between precious metals and the real exchange rate. However, this relationship varies over time. Especially in times of crisis such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the transfer of volatility disappears. Precious metals have a safe haven feature against the exchange rate. On the other hand, the reverse is not true. During the Covid period, the bilateral risk transfer between crude oil and exchange rate disappears. The crude oil and exchange rate have safe haven feature during the Covid-19 period. Only for Indonesia, there is risk transfer from oil to exchange rates.